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Latest Country Blogs: Iran
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'No' to war on Iran



Countdown to attack on Iran has started

As talks open in Turkey over Iran’s nuclear programme, there is increasing evidence that a countdown to an attack on the Islamic republic by Israel and the United States has begun behind the smokescreen of face-to-face meetings.

The negotiations between Iran, the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, seem designed to fail because there’s nothing on offer. A military strike in the autumn, on the eve of the American presidential election, is now openly being discussed in military circles.

A scenario similar to the one that proceeded the 2003 invasion of Iraq is unfolding. International law is being manipulated to justify a pre-emptive attack on Iran, even though there is no evidence that the country represents an imminent threat to either Israel or the US.

Anthony D'Amato, a professor of international law at Northwestern University in the US, claims that Iran says it wants to “to push the Israelis into the sea and that they are constructing nuclear weapons. That's enough for me to say that cannot be allowed. If the U.S. or Israel takes the initiative to block that action, it can hardly be said to be violating international law. It can only be preserving international law for future generations."

Other experts take a totally opposite view. But they can be easily ignored. After all, the Foreign Office’s most senior lawyer quit on the eve of the Iraq war after she submitted that it would an illegal act of aggression.

In fact, there is no evidence that Iran is actually building a nuclear bomb. Even the Central Intelligence Agency and Mossad admit that. But just as in 2003, over the fabled but non-existent “weapons of mass destruction”, the facts are either being ignored or simply distorted.

Yukiya Amano, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since July 2009, which is responsible for verifying Iran’s nuclear programme, stands accused of pro-Western bias and of “over-reliance on unverified intelligence and of sidelining sceptics”. IAEA reports have becoming increasingly hostile, leading one former weapons inspector to comment:

What we learned back in 2002 and 2003, when we were in the run-up to the war, was that peer review was very important, and that the analysis should not be left to a small group of people. So what have we learned since then? Absolutely nothing. Just like [former US vice-president] Dick Cheney, Amano is relying on a very small group of people and those opinions are not being checked.

President Obama is being driven by the powerful Zionist lobby to support an attack by Israel or face losing key votes in the November election. On the other hand, there is no appetite among American voters for another war. In a recent poll, only 20% strongly favoured an attack that could lead to an Iraq-type conflict.

Ultimately, the intention of Washington and its allies is to create conditions for what they hope will be regime change in Tehran. They know that bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities in itself would be meaningless because they are buried deep below ground. Instead, they hope a military attack would lead to the downfall of the Iranian theocracy and its replacement by a pro-Western “democracy”.

Yet leading figures in the Iranian opposition feature in a video showing activists and intellectuals speaking out against an attack. They say it would strengthen the hand of the regime, which has brutally cracked down on its opponents.

Sadeq Zibakalam, who teaches at Tehran University , says:

A military strike will not help the democracy and reformist movement at all because it will cause militarisation of the country. The military, the revolutionary guards and radical elements will increase their power.

None of this is of concern to the major powers. Just as in Iraq, the long-term “prize” is the opening up of markets to global corporations and investment banks who are struggling in the capitalist recession. With Iran far better armed than Iraq was, the potential for miscalculation leading to international war is immense.

The campaign to stop an attack on Iran should begin now. Regime change should begin at home.

Paul Feldman
Communications editor
13 April 2012

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Your Say

Annamaria Adams says:

Absolutely - now do we start with a petition leading to dialogue...or what?

Jonathan Murray-Lacey says:

WELL: the similarities are truly stunning, for the gullible, the faint hearted though have their credibility tested again. The fertile research and analysis offered by AWTW of what is definitely not ‘similar’ since then – and a massive amount reflected in the minds and active relations of those developing within it. There are those who campaigned to immediately go into active relations on hearing of yet another attempt to deceive; ‘preserving international’ relations for future generations; except for those they are set against, the immanent crisis deepens both their needs and outlooks.

‘the facts are either being ignored or simply distorted’.

‘Intellectually’ this must be a fascinating event for some both involved and believing themselves observers in their own life. These event, the actual relations, are not a conjuror’s trick for children, not repeated again and again with a society which is bound to secrecy as to how the trick works – with the world wide web it isn’t even the ‘slow news day’ and the ‘attack on a boarder post’ that ‘allowed’ Nazi Germany to do what all the leaderships with the methodological tools said it was about to. No these are different times. It is this active ingredient, that of the deepening in the methodological approach of all involved, in their relations through which they build this method, which is now triggered on a deeper and wider scale. ‘Just like [former US vice-president] Dick Cheney, Amano is relying on a very small group of people and those opinions are not being checked.’ Of course he depended not relied on these people – each agenda had nothing to do with diplomacy (interesting given Iran’s ancient history) and certainly not on truth. Maybe the first casualty of war – and war preparations – but increasingly as the propaganda tools of each nation state is played out in real time world wide through the web so too is its accuracy and critique. The beauty of comparative (and parallel) analysis is the ease with which the truth hits one and the urge to ‘kick’ ars.

The numbers who would be triggered into action now the lessons have been learnt as to previous adventures and added to that the immense ‘eye opening’ as to the deeper world crisis that taught some fundamentals and then how to organize is a deepening problem in the US that has shaken them. The recent blog on ‘Big Brother’ – and the equivalence in the US shows a little terror just of their own populations levels of organization and consciousness. Sadeq Zibakalam , amongst others, is constant drawn on for a clear analysis of the events on the ground – but it is the amazing fact that ‘the potential for miscalculation’ is so obviously what will lead to disaster for so many and an increase in damage all round… The reasons are clear; while the professional soldier and the spy chiefs and their staff deal with reality, the politicians and the ruling class, the economists whose tools they are and whom they reflect respectively are driven by the crisis – by the absolute need to do or die.

The conclusion of this blog is essential and of major importance.
Miscalculations have occurred also in the support given at different times, not for the Arab Spring as such but certain clarity as to, e.g. how deeply involved were the British intelligence bodies, special forces, and media; thousands of sorties taking off from England and almost no coverage of that nor of the effects of the bombing – not even the; ‘I counted them out and I counted them back in again’. In what was unfolding a missing target met little criticism. This has made commitment to the unevenness of differing states and the calls confusing allowing major intervention and lies by the capitalist state which, after all, cares little, has cared never as to the nature of these states or other than stealing the natural recourses.

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